Example
- A patient takes a lab test and the result comes back positive. The test
returns a correct positive result in only $98%$ of the
cases in which the disease is actually present, and a
correct negative result in only $97%$ of the cases in which
the disease is not present. Furthermore, $.008$ of the
entire population have this cancer.
\[ \array{ P(cancer) = .008 & P(\neg cancer) = .992 \\ P(\oplus \,|\,
cancer) = .98 & P(\ominus \,|\, cancer) = .02 \\ P(\oplus \,|\, \neg cancer) =
.03 & P(\ominus \,|\, \neg cancer) = .97} \]
- If a new patient comes in with a positive test result,
whats the probability that he has cancer?
\[
\array{
P(\oplus\,|\,cancer) P(cancer) = (.98).008 = .0078 \\
P(\oplus\,|\,\neg cancer) P(\neg cancer) = (.03).992 = .0298
}
\] so $h_{MAP} = \neg cancer$.
José M. Vidal
.
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