@InProceedings{chen05a,
  author =	 {Yiling Chen and Tracy Mullen and Chao-Hsien Chu and
                  David M. Pennock},
  title =	 {Information markets vs. opinion pools: An empirical
                  comparison},
  booktitle =	 {Proceedings of the {ACM} Conference on Electronic
                  Commerce},
  year =	 2005,
  abstract =	 {In this paper, we examine the relative forecast
                  accuracy of information markets versus expert
                  aggregation. We leverage a unique data source of
                  almost 2000 people's subjective probability
                  judgments on 2003 US National Football League games
                  and compare with the ``market probabilities'' given
                  by two different information markets on exactly the
                  same events. We combine assessments of multiple
                  experts via linear and logarithmic aggregation
                  functions to form pooled predictions. Prices in
                  information markets are used to derive market
                  predictions. Our results show that, at the same time
                  point ahead of the game, information markets provide
                  as accurate predictions as pooled expert
                  assessments. In screening pooled expert predictions,
                  we find that arithmetic average is a robust and
                  efficient pooling function; weighting expert
                  assessments according to their past performance does
                  not improve accuracy of pooled predictions; and
                  logarithmic aggregation functions offer bolder
                  predictions than linear aggregation functions. The
                  results provide insights into the predictive
                  performance of information markets, and the relative
                  merits of selecting among various opinion pooling
                  methods.},
  url = 	 {http://jmvidal.cse.sc.edu/library/chen05a.pdf},
  cluster = 	 {16177829967646216575}
}